NCAA Lacrosse

Motley Crue knows men’s lacrosse

Final Four S.O.S.
“It’s the same ‘ol; the same ol’ situation
It’s the same ‘ol; the same ‘ol ball and chain”

With the exception of Cornell, Motley Crue knows men’s lacrosse.

Making the trek to the no man’s land that is Foxboro Massachusetts is Duke, Cornell, Virginia, and Syracuse.  It makes prognostication fairly easy when you see the same teams year in and year out.  This year at least there were a couple perennials to not make the trip.  Losing last week were Maryland, Princeton, UNC, Johns Hopkins.

To the losers, some final thoughts:

Maryland: Passing drills. NONE of the passes against ‘Cuse last week were crisp. The Cuse D is not known for knocking passes down (except White). Your lack of effort made Syracuse D look better than they are. Also, when distracted by a blown call, don’t hurt yourself jumping around like a House of Pain wannabe.

Hopkins: I told you so. A save percentage below 50% won’t win you any rings.

Princeton: Got beat at your own game. Your offense looked good all season until now. I got no hate…you did better than I thought you would in the preseason.

UNC: The new Hofstra; where hype and promise always have a way of falling short. For a number of years you’ve had talent and fallen short, and this one was probably the best chances at winning a National Championship (choke).  Lastly…Bitter’s inconsistency hurt. He had 4 games with 1 point, and 1 game with 2 assists, yet he put up 7 games with 5 or more points.  Side knowledge nugget…Duke was the only team to hold Bitter to 0 goals in a game…twice.

Now we have talked about last week’s losers, lets look at Saturday’s semis.

Can Syracuse sophomore long stick midfielder Joel White contain Duke's All-American middie Ned Crotty? - Photo by Chris Beavers

Syracuse vs Duke:

Syracuse – This team has me worried. Sure on paper, they look great. In person, while their offense is flying their defense is suspect. I’ve read IL’s analysis, and if you look at goals allowed, they look good. If you watch their games, you’ll see what I mean. Inside they are weak. The unofficial body count is much lower this year than last. Maybe it was that chip on their shoulder or the difference in personnel, but last year, they would lay some lumber and bodies on teams that tried to take the game inside. This left the outside shots for their goalie to save. In many of the games this year, early runs by opponents have been a layup from within 5 feet of the crease. Many times this was due late/slow slides, and just the lack of a beatdown. This will be key against the Dookies who’s offense has lit up opponents this year. I want to see Quinzani planted…please.

On offense, Syracuse needs to have their spurt of goals come before the 3rd quarter. All season they have struggled to find a rhythm early, but then explode around the 3rd quarter. Case in point was the Maryland game last week. In the first half, Cuse only scored 5. SU should have had more, as they did not capitalize on all of the MD errors. It wasn’t until 3:17 left in the 3rd quarter that Syracuse opened up the scoring 5 goals in less than 6 minutes.

Lastly, after last week’s performance by Al Cavalieri, how come there isn’t a goalie controversy? Sure Galloway won the job in preseason and has played respectively all season (7.58Goals Against/Save56.7%). As in hockey, you need to ride the hot player. If Al is hitting his stride during playoffs, and is a legit D1 starter, I would play him over Galloway. Unfortunately, I think Cuse will relinquish Al (5.47GA/68.6%) back to the bench.

Duke – Duke is an offensive force that lives and dies by Ned Crotty (23/53). Last week, Ned had 8 points as the Blue Devils beat UNC 12-11. In Duke’s two wins against UVA, Crotty put up 8 points in EACH game. His motion is smooth enough to be a scoring threat, and his vision and reflexes enable him to be an assist machine when defenses slide. However, in Duke’s 3 losses, Crotty has 5, 2,1 points. His main benefactor is Max Quinzani (43/10).

Max is more of a finisher, always has, always will be. Duke’s only question will be their goalie. Schroeder has a 7.67 GAA, and save51.7%. However against top 10 teams the numbers are worse (9.5GAA/48%). These aren’t poor numbers, but not great. His ability will be tested against a Syracuse team with multiple weapons.

I like the overall team play of Cuse. Their grittiness to fight back, and stay in the games always impresses me. They will need to come out early. I sound like a broken record, but against Duke, you can’t let them get up on you early. Duke’s offense scares me. If I wasn’t pulling for Greer to get the Tewaaraton trophy, I’d pick Crotty. The game will come down to if Ned can be shut-off and how the rest of Duke responds. After watching Joel White play LSM all year, I think he can force Crotty to be a non-factor in this game. Without Crotty, Duke will choke and lose by 4.

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UVA vs Cornell:

Will senior Max Seibald and the rest of the Big Red be able to pull the upset over top ranked UVA? - Phot from ivyleaguesports.com

In an earlier match this year, UVA took the game by a score of 14-10. I hate to rest the loss on one player, but there is no denying that Cornell’s Kyle Harer had something to do with it as he allowed 14 goals and made 4 saves (22%save). Even if he eeeked out a slightly less wretched game of 44%, Cornell would have at least made it to OT. The other factor in that game was Faceoffs. A few more in the second half could have helped Kyle. In the first half, Cornell won 9 of 15 FO. The Red also had 26 shots and 7 goals. Compare that to the second half numbers (2 of 13 FO, 13 shots, 3 goals). Key fact – UVA’s midfield scored 10 of 14 goals.

UVA – If you asked me in the beginning of the year, I would have said UVA could run the table. Now…not so much. UVA’s offense is excellent, when everyone contributes. Their defense is average. UVA has only lost two games this year, and both were to Duke. These losses exposed a weakness. In their losses, UVA’s midfield only put up 5 goals combined. The other important stat is that their EMO only scored 2 out of 10 chances. Ghitelman was only able to make 16 saves and let in 29 goals in these games (35.6%). Whether this was due to poor UVA defense/goalie, or Duke’s snipers is debatable.

Overall, UVA’s attack is sick with Gladding (30/30), Billings (37/20), and Stanwick (34/21). Their two top midfielders top out the top 5 with Shamel Bratton (30/11), and Brian Carroll (29/10). In goal, Ghitelman has a 7.96GA/56%.

Cornell – I was at the Hofstra games, and from the stands, Cornell looked to play the best game of the four teams that were there. Cornell came out ready to play Princeton’s style of game, and they executed it perfectly. Cornell won the FO war (14 of 23), and rolled to a 5-1 lead at the half. Their defense clamped down holding Princeton’s EMO to only 1 goal on 7 attempts (too many penalties). Jake Myers was in goal for the Red and was barely tested. He had 4GA, and 5 saves.

Cornell needs to do many things in order to pull out an upset. Theywill need to shut down UVA’s midfield if they want to win. Control FO, and shut down Shamel and Brian Carroll. They also need consistent play from their goalie. I have no doubt Cornell will be able to score, the question will be can they stop UVA from scoring.

UVA doesn’t need to do much, except to get their midfield involved. While UVA has a great attack, they can’t win it alone.
I’d love to pick Cornell, but my head won’t let me. I am going with UVA by 2.

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This week’s games of the week are a perfect trifecta from the Meadowlands.  While all the teams participating are Final Four caliber teams, hopefully this is not a prequel to a future Final Four site.  While it is the home of my beloved Giants, and near NYC…it is also in dirty Jersey.  More on the NCAA’s movement of FF locations in a later blog.

For the record the best game is the first game, with the last game being the least interesting out of the three.  So if you can get to the Meadowlands this weekend do so…and early.

Virginia vs. UNC

The first game of the day pits Virginia against UNC at noon.

UVA is still undefeated at 11-0 with wins over #2Syracuse, #3Cornell, #11Hopkins, and #8Maryland.

UVA in their last 2 games have only won by 1 goal in each.  In their most recent, it was the longest game EVER going into 7 overtimes.  Everything about this team looks polished, especially Ghitelman making 22 saves in that 7OT thriller.  22 saves and only 9 goals against.  Their offense is superb and Ghitelman continues to stand on his head in cage.  There really is not much of a weak spot on this team, except EMO (32%).  Maybe they’ll be tired still for UNC?

UNC is 8-3 with wins over #19Denver, #17Navy, #15Colgate, #11Hopkins and losses to Notre Dame, Duke, and Maryland.  UNC statistically should have more wins.  They just fell short against some tough competition.  They are dominating on FO and GBs.  Their EMO is struggling at 35%, but their ManDown defense is playing well holding opponents to only 34%.

UNC should come out and play UVA physically for two reasons.  On the off-chance there is still some tightness/soreness from the 7OT game, and since UNC Man-down is good and UVA EMO is struggling, don’t be afraid to get some laundry on the field.  Other than that UNC needs to win those FO and GBs, and try to keep the ball out of the sticks of Virginia’s offense both Middies and Attack.  While my heart wants UNC to win, I think Ghitelman is too hot right now.  If he wasn’t playing at the level he is now, I could see UNC possibly with the upset.  Virginia by 4.

Princeton vs. Syracuse
The second game of the night is Princeton vs Syracuse at 2:30pm.

Princeton is 7-1 with wins over #11Hopkins, #6UMBC, and #18Albany. Their lone loss was to Hofstra. 

Princeton’s offense has been just as good as their defense.  Princeton is averaging 12.25 goals per game.  In their only loss to Hofstra, Princeton could only find the net 7 times and that was their downfall.  Princeton has 2 flaws.  Their special teams (EMO is less than 40%, and Man Down is less than 50%), and Faceoffs (52%).  Faceoffs is another factor in their loss as they only won 8 of 27.

Syracuse is 7-1 as well with wins over #11Hopkins, and #15Loyola.  Their lone loss was to Virginia.  Syracuse the past few games has had a habit of starting off slow and then exploding in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th quarters.  In the last 3 games they have not scored more than 3 in the first quarter and have progressively started their spurt later in the game.  Their offense is a formidable weapon, and while their defense is solid, they seem to lack the physical presence they had last year.  The Orange need to win FaceOffs, as they have struggled at times this year.  If Syracuse can get up early and not have to play catch up against Princeton, the Orange win.  Princeton could upset Syracuse if they can jump to an early lead and then slow the game down.  I am being a homer and going with the Cuse on this one.  While their slow starts scare me against a team like Princeton, once the scoring train gets rolling, there’s no stopping it.

Hofstra vs. Delaware
Finally to round out the day, Hofstra takes on Delaware at 5:00pm

Hofstra’s defense and goalie have gelled since mini-Gvozden was thrown into the fire against his big brother and the rest of the Hopkins Blue Jays.  Since then mini-G and the rest of the Dutch D have held opponents to under 8 goals per game.  Not on average, but no one has scored more than 8 on them since the loss.Delaware is 3-7 with no ranked wins, and too many losses to list.  3 of their 7 losses were by 1 goal.  If not for 3 goals, they could be a ranked team. This is Delaware’s downfall. Their offense has not put up more than 10G in a month.

This is an easy pick for me.  The Dutchmen playing in their own backyard with their D and G playing very well, and Delaware’s O stalling out to a fizzle is a no brainer.