This is a game many people wanted to see including the NCAA. This is a rematch of a battle played earlier in the season where Duke walked away with a win.

Duke owned the time of possession and out shot Syracuse 42 shots to 29. Duke controlled by winning the ground ball battle scooping up 25 compared to Syracuse’s 20. Surprisingly the typical tandem of Constabile (7 of 16) and Fowler (4 of 9) had no answers for Ricky Buhr, as Duke only won only 44% of the face-offs. Ricky Buhr who has had iffy results all year, actually won 56% of the faceoffs for Syracuse. It was a back and forth game with multiple lead changes. Syracuse scoring was led by Palasek with 4 Goals and 1 assist, and Desko with 2G/2A. Duke was led by Rotanz with 4G/0A, and Wolf with 2G/3A. Both teams also had big contributions from guys that aren’t always listed in the boxscores who stepped up for a big game. Luke Commetti for Syracuse (11 goals all season), and David Lawson for Duke (12 goals all season) each netted 2 goals apiece.

There were several key factors in that game.
Cuse stayed in the game partly to their tenacity. They caused 12 of Duke’s 19 turn overs, and disrupted Dukes clear attempts allowing them to convert just 11 of 15 (73%). Syracuse cleared 7 of 8 attempts (88%).

Syracuse had mental mistakes. Lamolinara came out of the cage for a loose ball, and got caught letting Duke’s Walsh score an empty net goal. Syracuse had 8 unforced turnovers. In the fourth quarter with at least two separate one-on-one opportunities their shooters did not bury the ball in the back of the net. Syracuse had been plagued with poor shot selection all season.
Special teams. Neither looked that good as Duke converted 2 of 5 EMO chances, and Syracuse converted 1 of 5.

And probably the most important factor was goalie play by Duke.
Dan Wigrizer, as I called out in the Preseason preview, is streaky. He continues to be streaky.
In the first meeting with Syracuse he had only 1 save in the first half. He woke up in the second half making 7 more saves including a couple one-on-ones to finish with 8 saves and 10 goals against. Not great, but good enough for the W.
In their last game against Denver Wigi posted 4 saves with 12 goals against. The game before that against UNC he posted 5 saves with 9 goals against. Earlier in the year against Loyola he posted 1 save with 7 goals against. So in these 4 games he has 18 saves with 38 goals against (Save Percentage of 32% and over 14 GAA). However when he does well, he does very well posting 16 saves and 6 goals against versus Notre Dame (Save 73%), and overall he has acceptable numbers 8.7GAA, save percentage 52%.

Tale of the tape:
Duke is 13-4. Losses to Notre Dame, Maryland, Loyola, and Denver. Quality wins over Syracuse, Maryland, UVA, UNC (twice).
Duke Offense is averaging 11.2 goals per game off of 38.2 shots per game.
Their leading scorers are; Jordan Wolf 29Goals/28Assists, Chris Walsh 27G/13A, Josh Dionne 32G/5A, Rob Rotanz 30G/7A, everyone else less than 23 points.
Duke’s Defense is letting in 9.1 goals per game…See Dan Wigrizer section above.
Duke clears 84.8% of its attempts compared to opponents 87%
Duke’s EMO converts just 22.2% of its chances, while opponents convert 46%.
Duke wins 55% of their Face Offs

Syracuse is 9-7. Losses to UVA, Hopkins, Villanova, Duke, Cornell, Georgetown, and Notre Dame. Quality wins over Princeton and Villanova.
Syracuse Offense is averaging 10.4 goals per game off of 36.3 shots per game.
Their leading scorers are; Tommy Palasek 23G/28A, Derek Maltz 28G/8A, Tim Desko 21G/10A, JoJo Marasco 12G/19A, Bobby Eilers 21G/8A.
Syracuse Defense is letting in 9.1 goals per game. Bobby Wardwell took over in cage and has posted 73 saves with 63 goals against for an 8.4 GAA, and save percentage of 54%.
Syracuse clears 88% of its attempts compared to opponents 80.5%
Syracuse’s EMO converts 38.6% of its chances, while opponents convert 42.9%.
Syracuse wins 47.5% of their Face Offs

Keys to the game:
1) Will Syracuse’s momentum continue? Throughout the season, Syracuse has looked poor on a number of fronts. They started off the season with two goalies splitting time and limited results (Dom Lamolinara 43Saves, 48Goals Against, 9.4GAA, SavePercentage 47% and Matt Lerman 73Saves, 63Goals Against, 10.02 GAA, Save Percentage 54%) before switching to Bobby Wardwell. Bobby has grown and had to mature quick and under fire. Syracuse’s FO unit has been horrible the entire season, up until the Big East tournament. Ricky Buhr finally has found his groove. It will need to continue against a top FO unit of Duke. Granted he did well earlier in the year when he was struggling, so it is possible he could continue. Lastly will be shot selection. Probably the area Syracuse fans were least concerned with was offense. SU has still managed to score 10.4 goals per game, but there have been MANY missed opportunities. Again, up until the Big East games, it seemed like half the shots taken were stick side high…and on one-on-ones, SU was being stopped more than they should have been.

2) The play of Dan Wigrizer. This coincides with SU’s shooting. The past two games has seen Wigi slump (9saves vs 21 Goals against). Will Rock or Turri take over in cage? Will Wigi get his head clear? Will Syracuse shooters take bad shots, and build up Wigi’s confidence?

3) Special teams. With Duke’s athleticism, one would think they would excel at clears, yet they struggle. Syracuse is one of the toughest riding teams out there. How many opportunities can Syracuse create on a Duke clear, and how many unsettled chances can they convert. Also on special teams, Duke struggles on EMO, and lets opponents score on 46% of their chances. Syracuse’e EMO played horrible during the last meeting. If they want to win, they will need to take advantage of a Duke team that is man-down 4 minutes per game.

I think Syracuse has come a long way in just the Big East tournament in everything from goalie play to just plain hustle. Combine this with the slump Wigi is playing in…I am saying Syracuse upsets Duke by 2.
Just for fun, I’ll also predict at least 1 unsettled goal scored off a Syracuse ride/Duke blown clear turnover.

So while I have no problem with the NCAA and teams chosen, I have to wonder about the seedings. I also wonder why no one is questioning them. As I said earlier, it has been a very level year with teams not winning dominantly or consistently. I am not complaining or calling a conspiracy. Just pointing out some odd coincidences…

After all 4 of the ACC teams make it into the tournament, based on seedings none have to play each other until potentially the final four. Thus an all ACC Final Four is possible.
The only 2 Ivy teams to make it into the tournament are Yale and Princeton. They are in the same bracket and could play each other in just the second round.
The only 2 ECAC teams to make it into the tournament are Denver and Loyola. They are in the same bracket and could play each other in just the second round.
Duke was given Syracuse. Typically the NCAA doesn’t like to set up 1st round rematch games. Also the NCAA likes to keep the distance generally 400 miles (drivable by bus). Both of these guides broken for this matchup.
Undefeated UMass gets #6 seed. I agree they might be overrated, and am generally anti-anything Mass related, but #6?

For all intensive purposes Notre Dame and Villanova should be in the tourney. So now, where one of these teams should have gotten the AQ and the other an at large bid…we will be looking at the Big East taking up 2 at large bids, stealing a bid away from another deserving team.

Can you feel all of the rage against the Orange hate starting already? They haven’t even won the Big East AQ yet, so let’s pocket that angst until Sunday. The way things have gone all season, it is possible to see St. John’s beat the Cuse and win the AQ. More on AQs and seedings on Monday after NCAA selection Sunday…for right now, let’s look at Cuse vs St. John’s.

These two teams met during the regular season. The Syracuse Orange escaped with 9-8 win with a goal that Tim Desko scored in the final 1:25.
St. John’s dominated Face offs winning 13 of 21 (62%), St. John’s out hustled Syracuse nabbing 29GBs to Syracuse’s 22. St. Johns keeper Jeff Lowman stopped 15 of 24 shots (62.5%), and Terence Leach and Kevin Cernuto were the offensive threats for St. Johns tallying 3 goals each.
For Syracuse on offense, Kevin Drew, Bobby Eilers, Tim Desko, and Derek Maltz all scored 2 goals each. The goalie situation at the time was still the even split experiment that didn’t end well. Lerman saved 6 of 10 shots (60%) in the first 30 minutes, and Lamolinara saved 2 of 6 shots (33%) in the second half.

Entering the season, Syracuse knew they were going to struggle, but not as much as they actually have this season. Syracuse Lacrosse believes in HHH (Head Heart Hustle). Up until Thursday against Villanova, they showed no Head (poor shot selection), no Heart (playing a full 60min), and no Hustle (Same GBs as opponents).

Face-Offs: All year Syracuse has only won 47% of its faceoffs. Ricky Buhr in particular was struggling at only 44%. Against Villanova he won 55%.

Groundballs: Syracuse usually excels in this with their speed and grit, but this year they scooped up 447 to opponents 435. Lower than usual, and combined with the lack of FO wins, added to the pressure on offense to score. Against Villanova, Syracuse looked beyond good, they looked Dyson good. The orange grabbed 41 to Villanova’s 22.

Offense: With added possessions, and confidence, the offense looked like they were taking better shots. Syracuse scored on 65% of their shots on goal (Villanova goalie only saved 35%).
For the year, Tommy Palasek is the points leader for Syracuse with 21 Goals/ 28 Assits, followed by Derek Maltz 28G/10A, Tim Desko 21G/12A, JoJo Marasco 12G/19A, and Bobby Eilers 23G/6A.

Goal: Wardwell looks better with each game as his confidence builds. Against Villanova he had 6 Goals against and 12 saves (67% Save Percentage). For the year he has 66GA/78Saves/8.7GAA/54.2% Save Percentage.

To the Orange faithful, watching the Villanova game was like eating Kobe Burgers, when you’ve been eating White Castle the rest of the season. Saturday’s game against a surprising St. John’s should prove whether the ‘Nova win was a fluke, or the Orange have found their groove.

St. John’s upset win over Notre Dame came down to time of possession, and goalie play. Jeff Lowman stepped up his game in goal posting 13 Saves and 7 Goals Against (65%) compared to his season average of 55%. When I say time of possession I am not talking about Face offs, since they only won 4 of 18 (22%), but off GBs, and Notre Dame turnovers. On offense Kiernan McArdle led the way with 3 goals and 4 assists, with 5 other players each netting 1 goal each. For the season McArdle has 29G/34A, Kevin Cernuto 23G/11A, Terrence Leach 22G/6A, and Harry Hunter 20G/8A.

This AQ is the only shot either team has of making the NCAA tournament, and both will come out strong. Syracuse has come a long way since they played St. Johns last, they settled their goalie situation, and seem to be shooting better, but can they sustain a full 60 minutes? St. Johns goalie stands on his head when playing in the big games against Syracuse and ND (save percentage of 64%), but will his offense be able to control the ball enough to give him a chance?

If I have to give an opinion, I would go with Syracuse based ONLY on their performance against Villanova. If they did not look as dominant and re-energized as they did, I would be telling you St. Johns in a crazy upset.

Both teams skill wise I would say are fairly evenly matched with a slight
advantage to UMass’ goalie and FO unit.  I
give advantage to Drexel for being the tougher team mentally, but wonder if
they have the toughness physically, or the depth of UMass bench.  I am going to say Drexel in a 1 goal win,
gets their revenge and a ticket to the NCAA tournament.

First and foremost there are two huge rivalry games. They may not be the top echelon teams this season, but both sets of squads are evenly matched.

Ohio State travels to Michigan on Saturday. It is one of the most storied rivalries in college and it spans any and all sports (football being the biggest). There have been coaches fired for not living up to (at a minimum) beating the other guy. I don’t see lacrosse being any different. While OSU is more established and has the better record, I wouldn’t dismiss an upstart Michigan team on their turf. Michigan in a one goal upset.

If Michigan/OSU is ONE of the biggest rivalries…THE biggest in all of sports has to be Army/Navy. Army travels south to Navy in a battle more for pride than a chance at the postseason. Both teams are right around .500, and while it may be an off year, these match ups are always physical, and exciting to watch. I’m actually going to go with Army on this one. Army is coming off a big win against Bucknell and they have loss to Air Force. I don’t expect Army will lose to both AF and Navy. Navy on the other hand is on a two game skid and needs to right the ship…it isn’t happening this weekend. Army in another one goal game.

One of the more hyped games this weekend is when Duke travels to UVA Friday night. Really? Duke has only a UNC win that looks good on paper. Against Georgetown, Harvard, and Brown, Duke almost let their leads slip away. Against Marist, they had to come from behind to win. Duke is lucky to have escaped Marist and Brown specifically. When you are only converting 21% of your man-up situations…you are not a championship team. As much as ESPN will try to hype this game, look for UVA to win easily (by 4+).

A make-or break game this weekend will be Umass at Drexel. Drexel has been giant killers in the past taking down big teams and/or coming damn close. This year, Umass’s “best” win has been over a Penn State team 1 game over .500. And it took OT to do it. Yes Umass is undefeated, and they have been tooling up on a 2-8 Albany, a 3-7 St. Josephs’s…but they haven’t been challenged by a legit team. Their schedule is pure luck. On the flipside, Drexel gets no luck. They lost to #1 UVA by 1 goal. They lost to #6 Notre Dame by 1 goal. They also lost to #19 Bryant, #18 Bucknell, #16 Penn State all in 1 goal games. It is hard to judge this game based on all clips and stats are skewed for Umass. I am going upset crazy. I say Drexel takes the lead and is has enough gas in the tank this week, as Umass gets their first loss of the year.

Another litmus test will be Loyola out at Denver on Sat. Loyola is a perfect 10-0 with a quality win over #7 Duke. Denver is 7-3. Their losses include an OT loss to #5 Cornell, and a 2OT loss to #6 Notre Dame. Loyola is dominating possession outshooting pponents 42-27 per game, averaging 7+ more Gbs per game, and winning 58% of their faceoffs. Denver might be able to offset this as they are winning 62% of their face-offs, also averaging 7+ more Gbs per game. This one might be decided by special teams. Loyola is converting 52% of their Manup opportunities, to Denver’s 22%. Even though Loyola is ranked higher than Denver, many people I talked to expect Denver to win. If the game was anywhere but Denver I’d go with Loyola, but I’m going to pick another 1 goal game, this time won by Denver.

Virginia is 9-1 with their only loss to Hopkins. Steele Stanwick (14G/33A) continues to be the leader of the offense that is putting up almost 13 goals per game. His main target continues to be Chris Bocklett (25G/8A), but he does spread it around (65% og UVA goals are assisted). Aside from the one bad outing against Hopkins where uncharacteristically high turnovers and penalties proved costly, UVA has looked like THE team to beat this year. The UVA defense is only allowing 7.9 goals per game, Rob Furtunato is saving 61% of the shots he faces, and the UVA FO specialists are winning 57% of their draws. Aside from the stats, watching them play is smooth. However, I said the same thing about Hopkins before their game against UNC…

UNC is 9-3 and coming off of a big upset of Johns Hopkins. UNC owes that win to special teams (75% on EMO opportunities and RGKeenan won 72%FO 18/25) and level play from Rastivo (9GA, 10SV).

While I like UNC’s special teams play, and I like the fact they have so many players that can contribute on the offensive side of the ball. I am still not sold on the UNC defense. I think especially when facing snipers they fold just like against Duke. Have you seen UVA’s shooters? They are more sniper-esque than Duke’s. UNC’s stock is on the ebb this week. UVA by 3.

I am getting tired of previewing the same teams. I In previous years, I could fill space with Syracuse previews throughout the year. This season…not so much. I am not on the bandwagon that believe they suck. In fact I think they are actually a good team that is missing three keys

Cuse is 4-4 with no wins over ranked opponents. They have lost by 4 to UVA, by 4 to Hopkins, by 1 to Villanova, by 2 to Duke. All of their losses are ranked teams, 2 of them in the top 5.

One of the missing keys is a single leader in goal. All of the players can talk about how it doesn’t affect them, but I call BS. I’ve played goal, and D, and I can tell you…you need one clear cut leader in between those pipes. Statistically, they are close. Lamolinara has played in 7 games, started 3 compared to Lerman who has played in 5 and started 5. Lamolinara has logged 285 minutes(60%) to Lerman’s 195 (40%). Lamolinara has 9.7GAA and a save percentage of 47% to Lermans 9.9 and 51%. I believe, and have since the first game, Lerman should be the go to guy. Watching his play, I think he makes the tougher saves. Either way, the Orange need ONE clear cut leader back there…not two guys splitting time.

The other key that everyone and I mean EVERYONE points out. Syracuse is vile at Face Offs. As a unit Syracuse is at 47%. Daddio is at 50% and Buhr is as 45%. If you are constantly getting beat on face offs, rather than beat your head against a brick wall, I am a big fan of letting a pole take the FO. A pole taking FO should not focus on winning a draw cleanly. Their focus should be to tie up the opponent and not let them get a clean win/fast break. Beat the snot out of the opponent’s wrists on the loose ball. I digress. Bottom line, Syracuse Face off “specialists” are not specialists. They are fodder for the real specialists.

The last key is shot selection. Syracuse is only netting 9.8 goals per game. Decent by normal standards, but for Syracuse, that seems low. They are taking too many high to high shots. This has plagued them a number of games, with the worst one being against Villanova. Bounce, or at least get some movement on the shot.

Princeton is 6-2 with wins over #13 Villanova by 6. Losses to Hopkins by 2 and UNC by 1.

Princeton’s offense is scoring 11.2 goals per game and only letting in 6.9. If you thought UVA passed a lot, you haven’t seen Princeton. 71% of all goals are assisted. This means defenses need to be ready with their second slide to come early. The top scorers are Tom Schreiber with 17G/17A, Jeff Froccaro with 14/6, and Alex Capretta with 10/7.

In goal is Tyler Fiorito who is averaging 6.6 goals against and 58% save.

The term “must win” is thrown around a lot. This game could be classified as a must win for Syracuse. A loss to Princeton is another lost chance at beating a ranked team. It would also drop the Orange to below .500. How this game plays out will really give some insight to the moxie of the Syracuse players. Are they going to come out fighting to get it together, or chalk up this year as a “rebuilding” year?

My heart says Syracuse keeps the hope alive with a 1 goal win…My brain says Princeton is actually good this year and wins by 3.

UVA @ MD

UVA enters 8-1 with their only loss to Hopkins last week. Virginia has looked good this whole year…until last week against the Jays. Virginia had a few errors which Hopkins took advantage of. You can’t go man down 5 times against a good opponent (Hopkins converted on 3 of them). Virginia also turned the ball over 12 times, including 3 in overtime. Stanwick put up good numbers (2Goals/3Assists), but just didn’t get his team the W. This week against MD, Virginia will need to make less mental mistakes. A difficult task as MD seems to get under everyone’s skin and can cause opponents to make mental mistakes.
Last year MD got under the skin of fans and opponents to the slow down game. So far this year, MD has gotten under the skin of UNC fans and players. (Have you seen this clip yet? http://yfrog.com/mzrgaz )
Note on the clip. Both Cooper for MD, and McBride for UNC were issued suspensions for this week’s games.

MD enters this game 5-2 with wins over #19 Georgetown, #8 Duke, #12 Villanova. They have lost to #11 UNC, and unranked UMBC.
So far this year Maryland has not been as deliberately slow against teams as they were late last year. The Terps are averaging almost 12 goals per game, and are only letting in 7.4 goals against. The offense for Maryland really has no clear cut finisher or feeders. Leading MD in points is Joe Cummings with 12G/7A, Owen Blye with 8/8, John Haus with 8/7, Drew Snider with 8/5. Everyone does everything. Good on one hand as everyone is capable…bad on the other hand as there is no clear cut guy to put the team on their shoulders when needed.
That is except in goal. The fate of Maryland lacrosse is solely up to Nick Amato in goal. One of the better goalies I’ve seen in a while. 6.6 Goals against and a 61.5 save%. Those are great numbers especially when you look at the teams MD has played.
I’ve got UVA winning this one by 3. Amato will keep the Terps in the game, but UVA will come out on a mission.

The second game of the week is on Sunday as Hopkins takes on UNC.

Last week Hopkins beat UVA in OT. While Hopkins played an excellent game, I think they got a little lucky with UVA’s errors. But give credit to Hopkins for capitalizing. The only new comment I have about Hopkins vs last week is that I am still waiting for Ranagan to wake up this season. Yes, he got the game winner in OT last week, but I expected him to put up more than 1 point. Maybe that will be this week.

UNC enters this game 7-3 with wins over #17 PSU, #14 Princeton, #6 MD. Yet they have lost to #15 Duke, unranked Lehigh, and unranked Penn.
This year’s UNC team is a microcosm of UNC lacrosse over the past decade. Talented, high expectations, sometimes achieving great wins, most of the time underachieving, and always bipolar.
UNC has no problems on offense averaging 11.9 goals per game. There are 9 players with 5+ goals, and 4 players with 10+ goals. The offense is led by Marcus Holman with 14G/19A, Joey Sankey 17/9, and Jimmy Bitter 12/7. UNC’s man up is converting 42% of their chances, and their midfield is winning almost 59% of face offs. So where is the problem?
Defense. They are letting in 9.3 goals per game.
Steve Rastivo’s numbers look decent overall (9.5 GAA, 53% saves), but look at his game by game numbers. Against Duke he lets 9 in with 4 saves (31%), and against Princeton he nabs player of the week with 8 goals against and 16 saves (67%). Against Navy he let in 8 goals with 4 saves (33%), but against PSU he let in 10 with 18 saves (64%). Ummm…inconsistent much? When he’s on, he is great. When he’s off, he’s a sieve. One of the other things to notice, is look at some of the shot totals he has faced. With an inconsistent goalie, his defensive unit needs to step it up and help him out.

If UNC could get it together on Defense, they could be a team to be reckoned with. Unfortunately I’ve never been able to figure UNC out, and I am not going to with this game either. Hopkins, on the other hand seems to be firing on all cylinders at this point. They just look good all around making few mistakes. I see Hopkins winning this one…the only question will be by how much? I’m going Jays by 4.

Hopkins enters this game 7-0 and coming off a 4 goal win over Syracuse.  Their only other notable win was a 2 goal victory over Princeton.

UVA enters this game 7-0.  They too beat Syracuse by 4 earlier this season, but they have not looked as dominant as many believed they would be in the preseason.  UVA beat Drexel by 1, a Pannell-less Cornell by 1 and a surprising OSU team by 2.

Hopkins has their hands full playing against the Virginia offense that puts up 13.4 goals per game.  Hopkins defensive unit is second in the nation behind Notre Dame.  As good as they are, they play mostly a man scheme.  Virginia has very athletic players and against a man defense, will force many slides.  UVA’s offense is built for this exact thing.  Their feeds are fast, accurate, and deadly.  UVA is assisting on 65% of their goals.  That’s a high number especially in today’s game.  Steele Stanwick accounts for over a quarter of the team’s assists with 25 (and 9 goals).  His favorite target is Bocklett who has 20G, 7A.  Briggs (12,10) and Cockerton (14,4) round out the main offensive threats for UVA.
Hopkins does have one of the best defenders in the country right now in Tucker Durkin.  He can shut great players down, and when he can’t he’s got one of the leading goaltenders behind him.  Bassett has let in 5.5 goals per game and has a 60.6% save percentage.  He makes the routine stops, AND the difficult ones.

Hopkins will have to control the tempo and control possession.  This IS something I think they can do.  While both teams are winning around 59% of their face-offs, after watching Hopkins, I think they have a slight edge here.
UVA’s Defense mainly plays zone.  This may play right into the hands of Hopkins.  If the Jays want to slow the tempo down, playing against a 3-3 zone might just help waste time.

However Hopkins will still need to score to be able to win, and this is where it could get interesting.  Hopkins doesn’t have any more Paul Rabils to run through a guantlet and rip a shot on the run.  Who will break through the UVA defense?  It will be John Ranagan.  He is a top middie having an off year so far. While still posting 7G and 5A, his shooting percentage is a dismal 15.6%.  I think UVA will see this and be more focused on Greeley (6,4), and Guida (7,4).  I’m calling it that Ranagan breaks out of his shooting slump and is the top scorer for Hopkins Sat.  Also helping out for Hopkins will be Zach Palmer (11,15), Brandon Benn (15,4… with a 50% shooting %), and Wells Stanwick (4,6).  If you didn’t know now you know.  There is yet another Stanwick playing lacrosse.  Being overshadowed by Steele, Wells has played in 4 games for Hopkins and has played very WELL.  IF Hopkins can find their way through UVA’s zone, they then have to shoot on Rob Furtunato,  who is just as good as Hopkins’ Bassett.  Fortunato has a 7.15 goals against and a 61% save percentage.

On Special teams, Hopkins needs to get more out of their EMO which is only converting 39% of the time compared to UVA’s 45%.

While Hopkins will keep the game slow, UVA is just to quick.  Virginia stays undefeated with an  8-7 win.

1. UVA: One word…Stanwick
2. Cornell: Pannell will carry the Big Red on his shoulders again…will it be enough?
3. Hopkins: Finally a solid Goalie. With an athletic midfield…the Blue Jays are dangerous again.
4. Denver: Yes Denver. Speedy, great shooters…but will their youth at defense hurt?
5. Duke: You need CONSISTENT play from your Goalie to succeed…Can Wigrizer keep up the way he was playing in the post-season?
6. Cuse: Their Attack and Midfield are reloaded. Defense and Goalie are HUGE questions.
7. UNC: For some reason they just can’t get over the hump…not happening this year considering the competition.
8. Maryland: I don’t like MD’s play style…but I love their goalie. Amato needs his team to score more.
9. Umass: Who are these guys? None of the names stick out, but they get it done together. They will hang in the top 10 this year.
10. Bucknell: 14 wins last season, 3 losses, and none of those losses more than 2 goals. Sure their schedule might have been light, but when they faced eventual champs UVA, they pushed Virginia to OT. This year they will prove they are no fluke.

The story at the end of last year will carry over and continue to the end of this year. Who is better?  Cornell’s Rob Pannell, or UVA’s Steele Stanwick?
Some argued Pannell had a better year and deserved the Tewaaraton…that Steele’s play in the post season shouldn’t be weighted as much. On the other hand, Steele had a ring, and led a team many were writing off (not us) towards the end of the season.
Either way, I really feel bad for any defense these guys play against. Different in how they can hurt you…they both can singlehandedly make a goalie cry.

Pannell put up MONSTER numbers last year with 42 Goals and 47 assists. Every year he has improved (67 points as a Freshman, 80 as a Sophomore, 89 as a Junior). There is a good possibility he could hit the 100 point mark this year (I’m gonna say 95).  Even though he was the focus of most opponents last year, he still put up amazing numbers. I don’t see any one defender being able to contain him.
He is built like a cross between a water buffalo and a gazelle. He has a great combination of power and agility. Pannell uses this to get past the first defender and bury a shot or dish. His passes are beautiful. Sometimes you wonder how the hell he got the pass off, or threaded the defense. Pannell will make no bones about it and come at you bro.  If defenses triple team him to try and stop him, he will still get off that perfect pass for an assist. Pannell reminds me of Maximus from the movie Gladiator. Just destroying everyone…yet at the end falling to a clever (though evil) foe.

If Pannell is Maximus, then Stanwick is William Wallace from Braveheart (minus the whole getting caught and executed at the end). Wallace could kick ass one on one with the best, but could also lead, at times a broken army, to ridiculous victories by his cunning and leadership.
While Steele Stanwick put up less total points last year (32 Goals, 38 Assists), he was the general that led his team to the championship. After the distraction of the Bratton brothers was gone from the UVA locker room, Stanwick really took control of the team. Steele’s biggest attribute is his laxIQ. Like a great chess player he can see plays 4 moves before they actually happen. He directs traffic and his teammates to get all the pieces in place.

While both are amazing to watch, I think Steele’s X & O brillance will get him the Championship again in 2012.  Pannell will probably put up bigger numbers than Stanwick again, and I think he will put up big enough numbers to win the Tewaaraton away from Stanwick this year, I don’t think he’ll be able to win it all for the Big Red.

Looking at the rest of the teams…

I think the #3 through #6 spots could all be in different places, but these four teams will all be in the mix for almost making the championship game.

Hopkins, looks very good this year. Their goalie and defense put up good numbers last year, and only look to improve as all starters return. At midfield John Ranagan is a dangerous middy that makes things happen, and the Jays return two of their top attackmen. The Jays look solid everywhere, just not as solid as UVA/Cornell.

Denver has an amazing coach that succeeds wherever he goes. They have great shooters, and amazing speed. The only thing worrying is their lack of experience on the defense. Tierney, being known for cranial defenses, will need his young Defenders to learn and perfect quickly.

Duke believes in pure offense. If you score more than your opponent you win. Their goalie Wigrizer had been streaky last year in the regular season. He pulled it together in the post season and made me look foolish posting a 62% save against Notre Dame and Maryland. When he plays well, he looks like an elite goalie…if he can play like that all season, Duke could be in the mix during Championship weekend…The question remains…Which Wiggie will we witness? (Go ahead…say that 10 times fast)

Syracuse just reloads on offense. There is no question except for goalie. They lost one of the best ever in Galloway (4 year starter, consistently facing one of the hardest schedules posted 57% saves, 7.3 goals against, and 59wins-8 losses). The Orange had 7 goalies on their roster as of fall ball. Now to make matters worse for the Cuse, one of the three players vying for the starting spot injured his hand, and could redshirt this year (Bobby Wardwell). That leaves Matt Lerman, and Dom Lamolinara to fight it out.

Teams #7-#10 are really just happy to be here.

Maryland is a good team with a great goalie. However this year their opponents will be expecting a slow down, deliberately boring game when facing the Terps, and will be better prepared. The type of game they were playing at the end of the year may come back to bite them this year. (I hope)

UNC I just can’t figure out. After having a lot of talent year in and year out, and always being considered a top team, they do nothing. I give up. The team never lives up to their potential, and for that reason, I am certain this year will be more of the same.

Notre Dame’s goalie is one of if not THE best in the nation. Their defense has not let in more than 12 goals since 2007. The team is always defensively sound. They just need to find an offense. As an old coach used to say, you can’t score if you don’t shoot. Sean Rodgers scores on 42% of his shots which is amazing…but in his career, he’s only taken 77 shots. Some players put up more shots than that in one season. Notre Dame needs to shoot…its not like they need to worry about turning the ball over considering the goalie and defense they have.

Umass returns most of its starters from last year. They look like they can and will improve from last year…could move higher and surprise.

Bucknell could be another sleeper surprise. They have an offense that can score, and a defensive scheme that actually ranked 5^th in Goals against last year. The prolem area will be the defensive unit that saw the most turnover of players from last year. If they can step it up to speed quick enough, Bucknell could be an upset maker in the post season.

Other thoughts:

Hofstra looked like they had great potential at the end of last year, but due to more than a handful of injuries, and guys not starting at 100%,  I am worried that they will tank this year.

Villanova is ranked higher by the other publications, but here is why they will be lucky to make the top 15…Yes they return all starters on Attack, and Midfield. But…They lost the BEST LSM in the game in Brian Karalunas (the kid could make things happen out of nothing), they lost Chris Ficke at close D, and their goalie situation is bleak…neither vying for an opportunity has looked that good. ‘Nova will be lost in transition, and will allow a lot more goals than they did last year.

What do you think?  Where does your team rank?