Lacrosse Blogs

Duke vs UVA

Duke has already played UVA twice.  The second game took place just one week after the first.  They split the series with each team earning a win.

In both games Duke outshot UVA.  In both games Duke won the Ground Ball war.  There were 4 key differences between their first and second meetings. 

A) Face Offs.  In the first game, Duke smoked UVA by winning 17 of 25 (CJ Constable won 10 of 13 for Duke and UVA’s Brian McDermott only won 8 of 20).  In the second game UVA won 22 of 32 (CJ only won 5 of 14 Brian won 17 of 19).    

B) EMO play.  In the first UVA was 1-5, while in the second game they were 2-2. 

C) Duke’s Ned Crotty.  In the first game, he scored a hat trick.  In the second game he had 0 goals.

D) Duke’s goalie.  More on that later…

Key Stats:

Duke’s offense is flat out sick.  249 goals scored (13.8 avg per game).  Their EMO is efficient, scoring on 51% of their chances. 

Ned Crotty leads the team in points with 82 (22G, 60A).  Next is Max Quinzani with 77 (64G, 13A), and Zach Howell with 64 (47G, 17A).  Max and Zach are both scoring on more than 44% of their shots.  Each of these three players all have more points than the top player of UVA.

Virginia’s offense is good.  Just not as explosive or over the top as Duke’s.  Chris Bocklett leads UVA in points with 58 (46G, 12A), followed by Steele Stanwick with 54 (26G, 28A), and Shamel Bratton with 37 (20G, 17A).

Duke relies on its attack to score (64.3% of all goals scored came from their attack).  No midfielder for Duke has 20 goals.  UVA on the other hand has three midfielders with 20 or more goals.    Interesting stat geek tidbit I found about the Bratton brothers while prepping for this preview.  To date, over their career, each brother has a shooting percentage of 22.65%.  I mean I know they are identical twins, but the same exact shooting percent down to the hundredth of a percent is insane. (Brian Carroll’s lifetime is 32.14%…just saying).

Special teams are evenly matched.  Duke’s FO unit wins 54% of the draws while UVA wins 56%.  Duke scoops up 57% of the GBs, and UVA gets 56% of the GBs.  EMO for Duke scores on 51% of their chances, while UVA converts 49% of the time.

Goaltending…

Duke’s Goalie situation is grim.  On one hand you have Dan Wigrizer.  After letting in 14 goals with 5 saves in the second game against UVA, his confidence has been shaken.  He lost the starting job to Mike Rock.  Before that second UVA game, Dan had a 54save%.  Since then, it has been 32%.  Mike Rock on the other hand has 3 starts and 3 wins since taking over the starter role.  While his save% isn’t great at 44%, he is the closest thing Duke has to a “hot hand” right now. 

Adam Ghitelman is consistent with 56%save and 7.8 Goals Against Average.  His worst day (loss against Duke) he still put up a save% of 46.  Last week against Stony Brook, Ghitelman saved the day for UVA, as their offence struggled.  UVA spent most of the game playing defense, and Adam saved 60% of the shots Stony Brook threw at him.

Intangibles:

Duke has a good coach in Danowski.  He consistently gets teams to the NCAA playoffs, but he also has a consistent flaw. *choke* *choke*. 

Remember when he coached Hofstra and they made it to the playoffs only to fall apart…multiple years?  In his tenure at Duke he has made the Final Four each year (2007-2010).  Yet has not won one single championship.   

UVA has the motivation, fan support, as well as the media support (yeah the media is supposed to be impartial, but when Duke made it to the championship, half the pressbox had already started writing that feel good redemption piece that everyone wanted to read).

Final thoughts:

If I am Duke, I play just as Stony Brook did against UVA…control the time of possession.  Slow down the pace of the game.  When on defense go with early slides against an athletic UVA midfield (at least 2 UVA goals against Stony Brook were on blown slides to the UVA midfielder). Whichever goalie Duke goes with is going to need all the help he can get. 

Virginia needs to attack fast, furious, and early.  Rattle the cage of Duke’s keeper.  On defense, play tight. Don’t let the Duke attack get those inside shots.  Force Duke’s midfield to try and score, then let Ghitelman make the saves. 

While UVA is not as explosive as Duke, they are an extremely balanced team with talent in every position.

Pick: UVA by 3.