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3-22-14 Preview Hopkins vs UVA

UVA has dropped two in a row , and Hopkins just lost to Syracuse.  Both the Jays and Cavs need to fix some critical issues before its too late.

UVA is 6-2 with wins over Drexel and Syracuse and losses to Cornell and Notre Dame.
After starting the season 6-0 and dismantling Syracuse, the Cavs looked like a legit #1 team.  Facing a Cornell team that has its ups and downs, the Cavs were upset.  Rather than build upon that loss, they got doubled up by Notre Dame (18-9) last week.
Against Notre Dame, the wheels fell off the bus, and no one could hide.
Face off wins were 27%.  Save percentage was 36%.  They turned the ball over 14 times (only 5 forced). They were outhustled on ground balls (-13),  outshot 26-40, and both special teams were wretched (20% on Man-up, while NotreDame converted BOTH chances and was a perfect 100%).
While the last two weeks there have been multiple issues with UVA, the recurring theme has been goalie play.  Barrett has saved less than 44% the whole year.  Against weaker teams, or if the offense/rest of the team is picking up the slack, you don’t need superb goalie play, but you need at least mediocre play.  As of late, that hasn’t happened, and the weakness has been exposed.
Hopkins is 5-1 with a win over Princeton, and loss to Syracuse.  Headed into the Syracuse game, Hopkins looked to be doing everything right.  They have a good goalie, decent offense, and good face off unit.  Unfortunately against Syracuse, they got down early, and key turnovers helped eliminate the face-off advantage they enjoyed.  I still think Hopkins is a very good team, that either played down to Syracuse, or Syracuse played the game of their year last week.  Hopkins’ Schneider is a good goalie, even though against Syracuse, he couldn’t do much.  Syracuse doesn’t get the ball much, but when they do, they are scoring and making every goalie they face, look like a sieve.  I don’t have a concern with Schneider, as on teh whole he is at over 58% save percentage.  At draws, Hopkins is winning over 64%, their offense can still score, both special teams are putting up good numbers (50% EMO, Opp EMO less than 22%).

Key to the game:

Simple.  Will the rest of UVA come to play, or are they going to hang Barrett out to dry.  He needs a supporting cast, and against Cornell and Notre Dame, rather than rally around their goalie, the rest of UVA seems to have taken a step back or two…or five.

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